Twins Edge Guardians in Close Contest
Saturday, September 12, 2026, 4:10 PM ET · Target Field
Minnesota Twins 4, Cleveland Guardians 3, final. Our MLB picks are sealed as a hash before kickoff and settled in public, losses included.
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Quick answers
Who won Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins?
Minnesota Twins beat Cleveland Guardians 4-3 at Target Field on September 12, 2026.
Who was favored in Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins?
Minnesota Twins were the favorite at DraftKings, moneyline -110 (about 52% implied). The favorite won.
In a tightly contested game at Target Field, the Minnesota Twins emerged victorious against the Cleveland Guardians, winning 4-3. This matchup was crucial as it marked the third game in a series that was tied at 1-1, intensifying the rivalry between the two teams. The win was significant for the Twins, who are currently sitting at a 70-78 record, while the Guardians hold a slightly better 75-74 record.
The Twins entered this game with a mixed recent form, recording a 5-5 record in their last ten games. They had lost their previous match against the Detroit Tigers 2-7, which added pressure to perform at home. Over their last five games, the Twins averaged 3.2 runs scored per game while allowing 5.6 runs, indicating struggles both offensively and defensively. At home, they have a record of 3-1 in their last four games, but their overall home record stands at 38-35.
On the other hand, the Guardians also had a 5-5 record in their last ten games, with their most recent outing resulting in a 5-9 loss to the Baltimore Orioles. They averaged 4.8 runs scored and 5.3 runs allowed in that stretch. Cleveland's away record has been less favorable, with a 1-2 record in their last three games, contributing to their overall away performance of 37-36.
In terms of head-to-head matchups, the Twins and Guardians have faced each other 21 times over the past two seasons, with a balanced record of 10 wins for each side and one tie. Their most recent meetings in July 2026 saw the Guardians winning two out of three games, highlighting the competitive nature of this rivalry.
Injury concerns have affected both teams. The Twins are dealing with several key players on the injured list, including Kaelen Culpepper, who is day-to-day with a back issue, and Byron Buxton, who is on the 10-day IL due to a hip injury. Other notable injuries include Mike Paredes and Mick Abel, both on the 60-day IL. The Guardians are also facing challenges, with Colin Holderman on the 15-day IL due to a wrist injury, and Rhys Hoskins on the 10-day IL with a back issue.
The betting market reflected the close nature of this matchup, with DraftKings offering odds of MIN -110 and away odds for Cleveland at -109. The spread was set at 1.5, with a total of 8.5 runs for the game. The over was priced at -104.0, while the under was at -116.0, indicating a competitive expectation for scoring.
The game conditions were suitable for baseball, contributing to an engaging atmosphere at Target Field. Fans witnessed a dynamic performance from both teams, with scoring plays that highlighted the back-and-forth nature of the contest. The Guardians struck first in the second inning when Bazzana singled to center, allowing Adell to score. However, the Twins responded in the third inning with a series of hits that led to four runs, showcasing their offensive capabilities.
Despite the Twins holding a lead, the Guardians fought back, scoring two runs in the fifth inning, narrowing the gap to just one run. However, the Twins' pitching held strong in the later innings, securing the win. Viewers were treated to a display of resilience from both teams, making this game a notable fixture in their ongoing rivalry.
Overall, the Twins' victory not only provided a much-needed boost to their morale but also added excitement to the series as they look to build on this win in their upcoming games.
What we said beforehand
The Minnesota Twins will face off against the Cleveland Guardians at Target Field on September 12, 2026, with the Guardians currently leading the series 1-0. This matchup is particularly noteworthy as both teams are vying for a stronger position in the American League Central. The Twins hold a home record of 69-78, while the Guardians are slightly better at 75-73.
In their recent form, the Twins have struggled, recording a 2-3 record in their last five games. Their most recent outing resulted in a loss to the Guardians, where they fell 5-2. Prior to that, they lost to the Detroit Tigers twice, with scores of 5-4 and 7-2, but managed to secure a narrow victory against the Tigers, winning 3-2. Overall, the Twins have averaged 3.2 runs scored in their last five games while allowing 5.6 runs per game.
Conversely, the Guardians have also been inconsistent, with a 2-3 record in their last five games. They won against the Tigers 9-5 but lost their subsequent game against the same team, 4-6. In their most recent match against the Twins, they secured a 5-2 victory. The Guardians have averaged 4.2 runs scored in their last five games while allowing 5.6 runs per game.
When considering home and away performance, the Twins have a home record of 3-1 in their last four home games, while their away performance has been less favorable at 2-4. The Guardians, on the other hand, have a home record of 4-3 in their last seven games, but their away record stands at 1-2.
Historically, the matchup between these two teams has been closely contested, with a head-to-head record of 10-10-1 in their last 21 meetings. The Twins and Guardians have faced each other multiple times this season, with the Guardians winning the last two games played on July 22 and 23, 2026, with scores of 10-6 and 3-1, respectively.
In terms of injuries, the Twins will be without several key players, including Mike Paredes, Mick Abel, and Cole Sands, all on the 60-Day Injured List. Additionally, Byron Buxton is on the 10-Day Injured List due to a hip issue. The Guardians will miss Colin Holderman (15-Day IL, wrist), Rhys Hoskins (10-Day IL, back), and Shawn Armstrong (60-Day IL, calf).
The betting market, as provided by DraftKings, has set the odds for this matchup with Minnesota at -111 and Cleveland at -108. The spread is set at 1.5, with a total of 8.0 runs for the game. The odds for the over are at -120, while the under is at -101.
Weather conditions for the game are expected to be warm, with a temperature of 74°F and wind gusts reaching up to 24 mph, which could impact the game dynamics.
Viewers should watch for how the Twins' batting lineup, led by Luke Keaschall with a .272 batting average and Kody Clemens, who has hit 26 home runs, performs against the Guardians' pitching staff. The Guardians will look to capitalize on their recent success against the Twins, with Chase DeLauter leading their batting with a .293 average and Angel Martinez contributing 15 home runs. This matchup promises to be an exciting clash as both teams seek to improve their standings in the division.
Odds
| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | MIN -110 | 8.5 o -104 / u -116 | Cleveland Guardians -109 · Minnesota Twins -110 |
Injury report
- Kaelen CulpepperDay-To-DayBackMinnesota Twins
- Mike Paredes60-Day-ILObliqueMinnesota Twins
- Mick Abel60-Day-ILElbowMinnesota Twins
- Byron Buxton10-Day-ILHipMinnesota Twins
- Cole Sands60-Day-ILElbowMinnesota Twins
- Colin Holderman15-Day-ILWristCleveland Guardians
- Rhys Hoskins10-Day-ILBackCleveland Guardians
- Shawn Armstrong60-Day-ILCalfCleveland Guardians
Recent form
Minnesota Twins
Last 10: 5-5Streak L15.4 scored · 4.7 allowed per game3-1 at home
- L2-7at Detroit TigersSep 9
- W3-2at Detroit TigersSep 8
- L4-5at Detroit TigersSep 7
- L1-10at Chicago White SoxSep 6
- W6-4at Chicago White SoxSep 5
- L1-4at Chicago White SoxSep 4
- L6-11vs Detroit TigersSep 2
- W15-2vs Detroit TigersSep 1
- W11-1vs Detroit TigersAug 31
- W5-1vs Chicago White SoxAug 30
Cleveland Guardians
Last 10: 5-5Streak L14.8 scored · 5.3 allowed per game1-2 away
- L5-9at Baltimore OriolesSep 9
- W9-5at Baltimore OriolesSep 8
- L4-6at Baltimore OriolesSep 7
- W3-2vs Detroit TigersSep 6
- L0-6vs Detroit TigersSep 5
- W7-6vs Detroit TigersSep 4
- L3-6vs Toronto Blue JaysSep 3
- L0-11vs Toronto Blue JaysSep 2
- W6-1vs Toronto Blue JaysSep 1
- W11-1vs Kansas City RoyalsAug 30
Standings
| Team | Games behind | Lost | Streak | Win % | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago | - | 72 | L4 | .510 | 75 |
| Cleveland | 1 | 74 | L1 | .503 | 75 |
| Minnesota | 5.5 | 78 | W1 | .473 | 70 |
| Detroit | 6.5 | 79 | W3 | .466 | 69 |
| Kansas City | 10 | 83 | L1 | .443 | 66 |
How the scoring went
- 2nd Inning1-0Bazzana singled to center, Adell scored, Martínez thrown out at third.
- 3rd Inning1-1Rodriguez homered to center (420 feet).
- 3rd Inning1-2Clemens singled to center, Keaschall scored, Lee to second.
- 3rd Inning1-3Lewis singled to center, Lee scored, Clemens to third.
- 3rd Inning1-4Caratini hit by pitch, Clemens scored, Kreidler to second, Lewis to third.
- 5th Inning2-4Rocchio grounded out to second, Fry scored, Hedges to third.
- 5th Inning3-4Kwan singled to center, Hedges scored.
Win probability
Above the line favours Minnesota Twins, below favours Cleveland Guardians.
Venue
- Target FieldMinneapolis, Minnesota
- Attendance26158
- OfficialsJames Hoye, Sean Barber, John Libka, D.J. Reyburn
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These two, other days
- Cleveland Guardians Defeat Minnesota Twins 9-2Sep 13, 2026
- Cleveland Guardians Defeat Minnesota Twins 5-2Sep 11, 2026
- Twins Triumph Over Guardians in Extra InningsJul 23, 2026
- Twins Outlast Guardians in High-Scoring AffairJul 22, 2026
- Guardians Defeat Twins 5-2 in Key MatchupJul 21, 2026