ENSign in
NFL · Final

Dolphins Edge Buccaneers in Close Contest

Sunday, December 28, 2025, 1:00 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium

Miami Dolphins 20, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17, final. Our NFL picks are sealed as a hash before kickoff and settled in public, losses included.

Next free pick (not the main pick)

The next free pick, for your email

Team, bet, price and the hash it was sealed under, on this page the moment you send. Lose or win, it stays public.

Unlock today's pick in Telegram →

or by email

Public record of the main pick, losses included: 115 won, 44 lost. See every pick

One free pick a day by email until you unsubscribe, in one click. 21+.

Get the daily free pick · See plans

Quick answers

Who won Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Miami Dolphins?

Miami Dolphins beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20-17 at Hard Rock Stadium on December 28, 2025.

Who was favored in Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Miami Dolphins?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the favorite at DraftKings, moneyline -265 (about 73% implied). The underdog won.

In a tightly contested matchup, the Miami Dolphins triumphed over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a final score of 20-17 at Hard Rock Stadium. Both teams entered the game with identical records of 7-9, making this fixture particularly significant as they both aimed to finish the season on a positive note. The Dolphins' victory not only boosts their morale but also highlights their resilience in a season that has seen its share of ups and downs.

The Dolphins had a mixed record in their last ten games, finishing with a 5-5 record, but they were struggling with a two-game losing streak heading into this matchup. Their average points scored during this stretch was 21.0, while they allowed an average of 22.4 points per game. In their previous five games, they averaged 21.4 points scored and 22.6 points allowed, indicating a slight decline in their performance recently. Their home record stood at 3-3, showing they were relatively strong at Hard Rock Stadium, where they managed to secure crucial wins against teams like the New Orleans Saints and Buffalo Bills earlier in the season.

On the other hand, the Buccaneers faced a more challenging stretch, recording a 3-7 record in their last ten games and entering the contest on a three-game losing streak. They averaged 21.2 points scored and 24.5 points allowed during this period. Their last five games were particularly tough, with an average of just 19.0 points scored and 25.4 points allowed. The Buccaneers struggled on the road with a 1-4 away record, which further complicated their efforts to secure a win in Miami.

In terms of injuries, the Dolphins had several key players affected. Ollie Gordon II was listed as questionable due to rib issues, while Ben Sims and Trey Moore were on injured reserve with undisclosed and ankle injuries, respectively. Additionally, Storm Duck and Darrell Baker Jr. were out due to knee and undisclosed injuries. The Buccaneers also faced injury concerns, with Sean Tucker, Emeka Egbuka, and Jalen McMillan all listed as questionable, while Xavier Williams and Mohamed Kamara were on injured reserve.

The betting market, provided by DraftKings, had the Buccaneers favored by 5.5 points, with a total set at 44.5. The odds indicated a belief in the Buccaneers' ability to secure a win, but the Dolphins' performance demonstrated their capability to defy expectations. The moneyline odds were set at +215 for the Dolphins and -265 for the Buccaneers, reflecting the perceived likelihood of a Tampa Bay victory.

Conditions at Hard Rock Stadium were typical for Miami, with warm weather likely playing a role in the game dynamics. Fans were treated to a competitive atmosphere as both teams sought to establish dominance early on. Viewers were encouraged to watch for the Dolphins' offensive strategies, particularly how they managed to score 20 points against a Buccaneers defense that had struggled recently. The game showcased the Dolphins' ability to capitalize on key moments, ultimately leading to their narrow victory.

In summary, the Dolphins' win over the Buccaneers not only underscores their determination to finish the season strong but also highlights the competitive nature of the NFL, where even teams with identical records can produce thrilling contests. The Dolphins will look to build on this victory as they head into the final stretch of the season, while the Buccaneers will need to regroup and address their recent struggles.

Odds

BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
DraftKingsTB -5.5 44.5 o -102 / u -118 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -265 · Miami Dolphins +215

What these prices pay on $100 · What these numbers mean

Injury report

  • Ollie Gordon IIQuestionableRibsMiami Dolphins
  • Ben SimsInjured ReserveUndisclosedMiami Dolphins
  • Storm DuckOutKneeMiami Dolphins
  • Trey MooreInjured ReserveAnkleMiami Dolphins
  • Darrell Baker Jr.OutUndisclosedMiami Dolphins
  • Sean TuckerQuestionableUndisclosedTampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Emeka EgbukaQuestionableToeTampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Jalen McMillanQuestionableKneeTampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Xavier WilliamsInjured ReserveHipTampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Mohamed KamaraInjured ReserveKneeTampa Bay Buccaneers

Leaders

  • Passing yardsQuinn Ewers14/22, 172 YDS, 2 TDMiami Dolphins
  • Rushing yardsDe'Von Achane18 CAR, 83 YDSMiami Dolphins
  • Receiving yardsTheo Wease Jr.1 REC, 63 YDS, 1 TDMiami Dolphins
  • Passing yardsBaker Mayfield33/44, 346 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INTTampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Rushing yardsBucky Irving9 CAR, 19 YDSTampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Receiving yardsJalen McMillan7 REC, 114 YDSTampa Bay Buccaneers

Recent form

Miami Dolphins

Last 10: 5-5Streak L221 scored · 22.4 allowed per game3-3 at home

  • L21-45vs Cincinnati BengalsDec 21
  • L15-28at Pittsburgh SteelersDec 16
  • W34-10at New York JetsDec 7
  • W21-17vs New Orleans SaintsNov 30
  • W16-13vs Washington CommandersNov 16
  • W30-13vs Buffalo BillsNov 9
  • L6-28vs Baltimore RavensOct 31
  • W34-10at Atlanta FalconsOct 26
  • L6-31at Cleveland BrownsOct 19
  • L27-29vs Los Angeles ChargersOct 12

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Last 10: 3-7Streak L321.2 scored · 24.5 allowed per game1-4 away

  • L20-23at Carolina PanthersDec 21
  • L28-29vs Atlanta FalconsDec 12
  • L20-24vs New Orleans SaintsDec 7
  • W20-17vs Arizona CardinalsNov 30
  • L7-34at Los Angeles RamsNov 24
  • L32-44at Buffalo BillsNov 16
  • L23-28vs New England PatriotsNov 9
  • W23-3at New Orleans SaintsOct 26
  • L9-24at Detroit LionsOct 20
  • W30-19vs San Francisco 49ersOct 12

Standings

TeamLostPoints againstPoints forTiedWin %WonOverall
Carolina189970.75033-1
Tampa Bay150400.66722-1
Atlanta145580.66722-1
New Orleans282470.33311-2
Buffalo0488801.00033-0
New England171501.50011-1-1
New York247390.33311-2
Miami363220.00000-3

Box score

StatTampa Bay BuccaneersMiami Dolphins
First downs2113
First downs passing146
First downs rushing57
First downs by penalty20
Third downs6-134-12
Fourth downs2-20-0
Offensive plays6354
Total yards380298
Yards per play6.05.5
Drives1011
Net passing yards327153
Completions33/4414/22
Yards per pass7.06.4
Interceptions thrown20
Sacks allowed3-192-19
Rushing yards53145
Rushing attempts1630
Yards per rush3.34.8
Red zone trips2-31-3
Penalties5-4510-77
Turnovers30
Fumbles lost10
Defensive touchdowns00
Time of possession32:0627:54

Win probability

Above the line favours Miami Dolphins, below favours Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Venue

  • Hard Rock StadiumMiami Gardens, FL
  • Attendance66552
  • OfficialsTerry Brown, Scott Novak, Mike Morton, Tony Josselyn, Mark Stewart, Don Willard, Brian Sakowski

Elsewhere

Picks for NFL

NFL rules and settlement

Most days: one sealed pick, free, before kick-off. Your first day of the main pick is free any day: code FIRSTDAY, no card.

A short email on days we have a pick. One click to stop, any time. 21+.

Fixture data from the league feeds. The report was written from the recorded facts for this game and nothing else.