What implied probability is
Divide 1 by a decimal price and you get the probability that price implies. 1.68 gives 0.595, about 59.5%. 2.25 gives 0.444, about 44.4%. It is one division, and it is the most useful thing you can do with a price.
Mets +125 (2.25) → 44.4%
Together: 103.9%. There is no game with 103.9% of outcomes in it. The 3.9% over the top is the bookmaker's margin, folded into both prices rather than charged separately.
So it is a price, not a forecast
Implied probability tells you what the market is charging, not what the market believes. Take the margin out and both numbers come down; where exactly they land depends on how the book distributed the charge between the two sides, and it does not tell you that either.
It is not our estimate of anything, either. We publish a market, a side, a line and a price — the price being your bookmaker's for that exact side. We do not publish a probability for any pick, and any figure you calculate from a price has the book's margin inside it.
What it is genuinely good for
Comparing the same side at two bookmakers, and understanding what a minimum price means in plain terms: the floor is the point where the implied probability gets too expensive for us to want the bet. Nothing in the arithmetic touches the game itself. A price implying 59.5% loses often, by construction, and no amount of reading a number makes a result certain.
Work it out. The odds converter turns any American, decimal, fractional or percentage price into the other three.
The archive
What the published price did in US sports
11,262 games in US sports that are over and carried a price when we wrote them up, between November 24, 2025 and November 6, 2026. Each count sits beside what it is out of, and the share is the one divided by the other.
| What | How often | Out of | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| The shorter price won | 7,058 | 10,936 | 64.5% |
| The favourite covered the handicap | 3,373 | 7,003 | 48.2% |
| The total went over | 5,518 | 11,236 | 49.1% |
| The home side won | 6,361 | 11,262 | 56.5% |
How they ended
Over 16,021 finished games in US sports whose result line says how it ended — the feed's own one-line verdict, not a reading of the play.
| What | How often | Out of | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Went past regulation | 1,212 | 16,021 | 7.6% |
| Settled on a shootout | 161 | 16,021 | 1.0% |
| Called before the end | 9 | 16,021 | 0.1% |
286 games landed exactly on the number — the handicap or the total — so they are in the counts they are out of and in neither result.
The prices counted here are DraftKings', as they stood when we last wrote each game up — one snapshot per game, near kick-off for almost all of them, and never a closing line. So this says what the published line did, not how it moved on the way there.
A season that happened. Nothing here predicts the next game, and none of it is advice.
Counted November 6, 2026.
Today's free pick, for your email
Team, bet, price and the hash it was sealed under, on this page the moment you send. Lose or win, it stays public.
or by email
Public record of the main pick, losses included: 115 won, 44 lost. See every pick
One free pick a day by email until you unsubscribe, in one click. 21+.