Patriots Edge Dolphins in Close Contest

What we said beforehand

The Miami Dolphins will face the New England Patriots at Hard Rock Stadium on November 1, 2026, in a game that holds significant implications for both teams in the AFC East. The Dolphins enter this matchup with a home record of 1-5 and are looking to improve their fortunes after a recent victory against the New York Jets, which snapped a four-game losing streak. In contrast, the Patriots have a more favorable away record of 4-3 and are coming off a loss to the Chicago Bears, ending a three-game winning streak.

In their last five games, the Dolphins have recorded one win and four losses, with their only victory coming against the Jets with a score of 28-25. They suffered defeats against the San Francisco 49ers (35-13), Kansas City Chiefs (24-10), Minnesota Vikings (15-10), and Cincinnati Bengals (31-24). Their recent form shows an average of 17.0 points scored and 26.0 points allowed over their last five games.

The Patriots, meanwhile, have a more robust recent performance, with a record of 3-2 in their last five games. Their victories include a close win against the Buffalo Bills (29-26), a dominant performance against the Las Vegas Raiders (45-17), and a win against the New York Jets (26-19). They lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars (6-35) and the Chicago Bears (30-24). The Patriots have averaged 26.0 points scored and allowed 25.4 points in their last five outings.

When looking at home versus away performance, the Dolphins have struggled at home with a record of 1-3, while the Patriots have been strong on the road with a 3-3 away record. The Dolphins' overall home record in their last ten games stands at 2-8, averaging 16.4 points scored and allowing 28.5 points per game. The Patriots, in contrast, have a solid away record of 7-3 in their last ten games, averaging 26.8 points scored and 18.7 points allowed.

Historically, the Dolphins have not fared well against the Patriots, losing both of their previous meetings in the 2025 season. The most recent encounter was on January 4, 2026, where the Dolphins lost 10-38, and earlier in the season, they fell 27-33 at home on September 14, 2025.

In terms of injuries, the Dolphins will be missing several players, including Jared Wayne, Jaylin Simpson, Kadyn Proctor (concussion), Justin Joly, and Jamree Kromah, all ruled out due to coach's decisions. The Patriots also have key absences, with Behren Morton, Karon Prunty, TreVeyon Henderson (illness), A.J. Brown (ankle), and Channing Canada all out due to coach's decisions or injury.

The betting market, as provided by DraftKings, has set the Patriots as 7-point favorites, with a total points line of 41.5. The odds for the Patriots to win outright are -345, while the Dolphins are at +275.

Weather conditions for the game are expected to be mild, with a temperature of 74°F and a 74% chance of precipitation. Winds may gust up to 13 mph, which could impact the passing game.

Viewers should watch for the performance of Dolphins quarterback Malik Willis, who has thrown for 1,057 yards with four touchdowns and four interceptions this season. For the Patriots, quarterback Drake Maye has been effective, with 1,784 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. The running game will also be crucial, with the Dolphins' Ollie Gordon II leading in rushing yards and the Patriots' Rhamondre Stevenson contributing significantly to their ground attack.

This matchup promises to be an intriguing contest, with both teams looking to solidify their positions within the division and gain momentum as the season progresses.